中文摘要：预计气候变化将影响初级农业系统进而危及粮食安全，直接通过影响产量，间接通过被认为是关键性危害的霉菌毒素影响其安全性。霉菌毒素由各种真菌产生，每种真菌都有各自的特点和需求。产毒真菌的地理分布反映出它们各自的生态需求，嗜热真菌流行于低海拔地区而嗜冷真菌存在于高海拔地区。由此产生的霉菌毒素污染梯度被一再强调。气候条件变化将导致真菌种群和霉菌毒素模式的变化。通常预计气候变化将增加作物的霉菌毒素污染，但由于每种作物的真菌群落结构及其与环境的相互作用的复杂性，不通过具体研究就得出结论过于草率。最近首次定量评估了气候变化对霉菌毒素发生的影响，开展了两项研究，分别应用不同的学科模式，包括气候预测，作物物候和真菌/霉菌毒素预测了欧洲栽培谷类，其次是气候变化对番茄黑斑病及其霉菌毒素的影响。研究表明预计在欧洲DON污染小麦普遍呈增长趋势。但也并不完全，预计某些年份某些地区的DON污染呈下降态势。至于欧洲黄曲霉毒素污染玉米的情况，预计将增加，大体+2°C左右。本研究填补了有关现有的考虑了气候变化的定量模型的（限制）数量及在有限区域中的验证这两个主要的研究空白。由此，必须努力做好准备面对将来模型验证和限制性霉菌毒素-作物组合的变化与挑战。
 
外文摘要：Projected climate change effects will influence primary agricultural systems and thus food security, directly via impacts on yields, and indirectly via impacts on its safety, with mycotoxins considered as crucial hazards. Mycotoxins are produced by a wide variety of fungal species, each having their own characteristics and requirements. The geographic distribution of toxigenic fungi reflects their ecological needs, with thermophilic fungi prevalent at lower latitudes and psychrophiles at the higher latitudes. A resulting gradient of mycotoxin contamination has been repeatedly stressed. Changes in climatic conditions will lead to shifts in the fungal population and the mycotoxin patterns. In general, climate change is expected to increase mycotoxin contamination of crops, but due to the complexity of mycoflora associated to each crop and its interaction with the environment, it appears rash to draw conclusions without specific studies. Very recently first quantitative estimations of impacts of climate change on mycotoxin occurrence have been made. Two studies each applied models of different disciplines including climate projection, crop phenology and fungal/mycotoxin prediction to cereals cultivated in Europe. They were followed by a case study on climate change effects on Alternaria moulds and their mycotoxins in tomato. Results showed that DON contamination of wheat grown in Europe was, in general, expected to increase. However, variation was large, and in some years and some regions a decrease in DON contamination was expected. Regarding aflatoxin contamination of maize grown in Europe, an increase was estimated, mainly in the +2 °C scenario. Two main research gaps were identified related to the (limited) number of existing quantitative models taking into account climate change and their validation in limited areas. Efforts are therefore mandatory to be prepared for future changes and challenges on model validation and limited mycotoxin-crop combinations.
外文关键词：food safety；predictive modelling；Europe；scenario analyses；impact assessment
作者：Van der Fels-Klerx, HJ；Liu, C；Battilani, P
作者单位：RIKILT Wageningen Univ & Res
期刊名称：WORLD MYCOTOXIN JOURNAL
期刊影响因子：2.091
出版年份：2016
出版刊次：5
点击下载：气候变化对霉菌毒素污染的影响