中文摘要：黄曲霉毒素是一种由黄曲霉产生的霉菌毒素，对玉米粒造成严重污染。因黄曲霉毒素能引起人畜肝癌，美国食品和药物管理局(FDA) 为食物和饲料的州际贸易设置了总黄曲霉毒素20ppb的限量。乔治亚州常见的高温、干旱及轻质土壤加重了污染。缺乏灌溉基础设施会进一步加剧干旱胁迫和黄曲霉毒素污染。黄曲霉毒素的准确评估需要采集多个玉米样品，费用高且在收获时进行，无法使用季节缓解策略以减小风险。鉴于测量费用和作物损失的后果，农业推广服务的一个重要目标就在于预测和鉴定黄曲霉污染高风险的年份和地区。以便种植者布置管理策略以降低风险并减少不必要的黄曲霉毒素的测量费用。本研究用泊松克立格法分析了黄曲霉毒素水平并用以验证识别高危年份和地区的策略。运用风险因素分析法进行比较试验，证实了在不同的地区和年份，黄曲霉毒素水平具有显著差异，由此认为它们具有不同的风险水平。泊松克里格黄曲霉毒素风险敏感性分析表明所分析数据的年份越多，效果越好；而低于15年的数据不可取。
外文摘要：Aflatoxin is a mycotoxin produced by the Aspergillus flavus fungi that can severely contaminate corn grain. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) have set a limit of 20 ppb, total aflatoxin, for interstate commerce of food and feed as it can induce liver cancer in humans and animals. Contamination is exacerbated by high temperatures, drought conditions and light-textured soil which are all common in Georgia (GA). Lack of irrigation infrastructure can further amplify drought stress and aflatoxin contamination. Accurate aflatoxin assessment requires the collection of multiple corn samples, is expensive and conducted at harvest which does not allow for the use of in-season mitigation strategies to reduce the risk. Given the expense of measurement and the consequences of crop loss, an important goal for agricultural extension services is the prediction and identification of years and counties at higher risk of aflatoxin contamination. This would allow growers to deploy management tactics to reduce risk and to reduce unnecessary expense on aflatoxin testing. In this research, aflatoxin levels were analysed by Poisson kriging and used to validate a strategy for identifying high risk years and counties. It is based on mapping risk factors (Maximum June temperatures, June rainfall, % corn planted area and % soil drainage types) that are above key thresholds. The aflatoxin data used were county level, collected unevenly in space and time from 1977 to 2004 in 53 counties in southern GA. Averaging and typical geostatistical methods were unreliable for producing a temporal summary of the spatial patterns because aflatoxin data were highly skewed and approached a Poisson distribution, and averages for counties with fewer observations are less reliable. Poisson kriging down-weights the influence of these in variogram computation and the estimation process. Comparison tests confirmed significant differences in aflatoxin levels between counties and years that were identified as having different levels of risk using the risk factors approach. Sensitivity analysis for Poisson kriged aflatoxin risk showed that the more years of data are clearly better for this analysis, but fewer than 15 years of data were not advisable. 
外文关键词：Aflatoxin；Corn；June maximum temperature；June rainfall；Southern Georgia；Geostatistics；Poisson kriging；Soil type；Soil drainage
作者：Kerry, R；Ortiz, BV；Ingram, BR；Scully, BT
作者单位：Brigham Young Univ
期刊名称：CROP PROTECTION
期刊影响因子：1.652
出版年份：2017
出版刊次：4
点击下载：运用地统计学方法对美国南乔治亚州玉米黄曲霉毒素污染的风险因素进行时空研究