中文摘要：在最近的价格空间传导研究中，食品丑闻危机的上升趋势没有得到很好的反映。本文采用价格空间传递法，分析了2013/2014塞尔维亚乳品业黄曲霉毒素M1暴发对国内市场的影响。研究表明黄曲霉毒素M1的爆发“冻结”了塞尔维亚乳制品市场，并暂时切断了它与世界牛奶市场的联系。养殖户的价格低于他们的长期均衡水平。危机期间塞尔维亚农场级乳品业的总损失高达9620万欧元。这些“错失的机会”大大减缓了乳品业的投资。
外文摘要：The increasing trend of food scandal crises is not well followed in recent studies of spatial price transmission. This paper analyses the impact on the domestic market of an Aflatoxin M1 outbreak in the Serbian dairy sector during 2013/2014 using a spatial price transmission approach. Monthly farm milk prices in Serbia for the period 2007/2014 were contrasted with leading dairy exporting countries New Zealand, USA and Germany, which did not have a food scare in their dairy sectors. To estimate the impacts a Markov-switching vector error-correction model was utilized. For all four dairy markets the model identified two price change regimes: standard and extreme. Although it was predictable, an extreme regime was not identified during the Aflatoxin M1 crises in Serbia because of some specific characteristics of its dairy production. The results suggest that the Aflatoxin M1 outbreak ‘froze’ the Serbian dairy market and temporally disconnected it from the world milk market. Farmer’s prices fell below their long-run equilibrium levels. The total loss of the Serbian farm-level dairy sector during the crisis reached up to 96.2 million EUR. These ‘missed opportunity’ significantly slowed investment in the dairy sector.
外文关键词：food crisis；aflatoxin M1；milk market；spatial price transmission；Serbia
作者：Popovic, R；Radovanov, B；Dunn, JW
作者单位：Univ Novi Sad
期刊名称：INTERNATIONAL FOOD AND AGRIBUSINESS MANAGEMENT REVIEW
期刊影响因子：0.435
出版年份：2017
出版刊次：1
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