中文摘要：未来数十年，气候变化可能是霉菌毒素问题经济学最大的影响因素。本文综述了最近几十年全球气候已经发生的变化，以及在不久的将来还将发生的变化；深入研究了粮食作物中气候因子如何影响真菌感染并产生特定的霉菌毒素；以及在不久的将来，气候变化将如何在世界不同地区造成这些毒素在作物中的流行。由于设置了食品和饲料中霉菌毒素许可的最大监管限量，如果气候变化引发了某些毒素盛行，那么种植户将遭受经济损失。已有个案研究了美国的玉米种植户，怎样由于黄曲霉毒素水平的轻微升高，即使仍然低于监管限量，而遭受了更大的经济损失。讨论了全球气候变化引起的霉菌毒素污染的总体预期经济影响－不仅限于市场相关的损失，还包括人和动物健康及食品安全风险损失。黄曲霉毒素最有可能成为在不久的将来的气候条件下增长的霉菌毒素，因而可能是具有最大的经济风险的霉菌毒素。
外文摘要：In the decades to come, the one factor that will likely have the greatest effect on the economics of the mycotoxin problem is climate change. This article reviews the current state of known science on how the global climate has been changing in recent decades, as well as likely climate change trends in the near future. The article focuses in depth on how climatic variables affect fungal infection and production of specific mycotoxins in food crops, and how near-future climatic changes will shape the prevalence of these mycotoxins in crops in different parts of the world. Because of regulatory limits set on maximum allowable levels of mycotoxins in food and feed, growers will experience economic losses if climatic factors cause certain mycotoxins to become more prevalent. A case study is presented of how maize growers in the United States will experience increased economic losses due to slightly higher aflatoxin levels in maize, even if those levels may still be below regulatory limits. We discuss the overall expected economic impacts of climate change-induced mycotoxin contamination worldwide - not just market-related losses, but also losses to human and animal health and risks to food security. Aflatoxin is the mycotoxin that is most likely to increase under near-future climate scenarios; and thus is likely to pose the greatest amount of economic risk of all the mycotoxins.
外文关键词：global climate；aflatoxin；fumonisin；deoxynivalenol；ochratoxin；economic impacts
作者：Wu, F；Mitchell, NJ
作者单位：Michigan State Univ
期刊名称：World Mycotoxin Journal
期刊影响因子：2.091
出版年份：2016
出版刊次：5
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